Tactical Stalemates: Betting on Draws in Top-Tier Football

According to stats from the past decade of the EPL (English Premier League), just under a quarter of all matches on average have ended in draws, or approximately 23.00%, to be more precise.
In other words, around 1 in every 4.35 matches will end in a stalemate – so when the score tends to finish in a goalless draw, 0-0, or it will finish as 1-1, 2-2, or 3-3. It’s rarely 4-4, although it does happen, and even rarer for anyone to see 5-5 or beyond.
Interestingly, a similar statistic of 23.00% of all matches ending in a draw occurs in the UEFA Champions League, where the best teams of top-flight football in Europe battle it out once a year to be crowned champion of Europe.
When is it safe to place a draw bet in football?
Remember that no bet is guaranteed in football or any other sport, even when the odds seem overwhelmingly in favour of a particular outcome/result occurring.
Anything can happen in football, so always remember that you are subject to losses and only gamble with money you can afford to lose.
Despite almost a 25.00% chance of certain fixtures ending in draws, very few bettors go with the draw result and put their money on a home team win (1) or an away team win (2). There is a similar statistic in the top-flight football leagues across Europe.
However, with that in mind, a draw can sometimes be a safer bet, especially in games where two evenly matched teams are set to play against each other.
When betting on football online at a fully licensed and regulated online sports betting site like the official 10bet website, you will always see the numbers 1, 2, and the letter X.
The number ‘1’ means the home team to win. The ‘2’ means the away team to win, and the ‘X’ means the result will end in a draw. You can also find many other draw betting markets.
For example, in a game between Manchester City and Arsenal, the following ‘draw’ markets are likely to be available: Half Time/Full Time (e.g., Manchester City/Manchester City, Manchester City/Draw, Manchester City/Arsenal, Arsenal/Manchester City, Draw/Draw, or Draw/Arsenal).
You can also find equally as many ‘correct’ score draw markets, such as 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, and so on.
How to predict which games will end in a draw
This is tricky but not as difficult as it may sound. When placing bets on European top-flight football today, it massively helps to have some kind of football knowledge.
It also helps to know previous results between the two teams, which individual players are currently in form or injured, the team’s current form, and any other reliable information you can get your hands on.
It all helps you place strategic bets that are more likely (however, never guaranteed) to return you a small profit. You should also take the time to understand one or more of the different odds formats and the implied probability rate of those odds.
The three main odds types are decimal, fractional, and American/moneyline odds. Let’s take a quick look at a few examples of how this works:
A bet with, say, an 81.80% implied probability rate (so most likely to occur) would appear as 2/9 (in the fractional odds format), 1.22 (in the decimal odds format) or -450 (in the American/moneyline odds format)
A bet that has a 50-50 chance of winning, so a 50% implied probability rate, would appear as 1/1 (fractional odds), 2.00 (decimal), or +100 (American/moneyline)
A bet with only a 1.50% implied probability rate (so least likely to occur) would appear as 66/1 (fractional), 67.00 (decimal), or +6,600 (American/moneyline odds)
That’s not to say that a 66/1 or 100/1 outcome won’t occur. In fact, bets with these odds frequently win, but they don’t occur as often as bets with much higher implied probability rates, and for obvious reasons.
The best thing to do would be to select an odds format you are most comfortable with (some betting sites allow you to change how the odds format is displayed on the website) and then stick with that format going forward.
Remember to study the odds before the start of a game, and with all the other information you have gathered about an upcoming fixture, placing the draw bet might be the intelligent bet you should go for. You must carefully select the games that will most likely end in a draw by selecting only the evenly matched teams.
In La Liga right now, the teams that have drawn the most so far this season are Ray Vallecano (6), Getafe (7), and Mallorca (6). In the Bundesliga, it’s Eintracht Frankfurt (5) and Bochum (6); in the Premier League, it’s even closer. Almost half the teams in the league have drawn at least three times already this season.
Final note
Other things to consider so you can place more informed bets are how many goals both teams have scored so far this season, what formation the two teams are playing and how many draws both teams have so far this season.
Having this kind of invaluable knowledge before placing bets is crucial and is an excellent strategy for winning more bets. Know the league and the teams you are betting on, and understand what the odds are trying to tell you.
Also, only place strategic bets at fully licensed and regulated betting sites like 10bet, which is well-known for having some of the iGaming industry’s most competitive odds for many of the top-flight European football matches.