The weight of statistics and Manchester City

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It is consistently thought that football is not just pure stats. There are a lot of variables in play which makes the predictions of results vary. It is the case of teams who buck any trends by simply coming from behind with two goals in the last three minutes of a match.

2 years ago
Cases like the game in which Real Madrid knocked out Manchester City are examples of this. With 60% of possession, incredible passing stats and more shots on target, Pep Guardiola's men were unable to do anything against Madrid in their favourite tournament. Everyone knows how the story ended for a team who ruined all bets and allowed Luka Modric to lift his fifth Champions League trophy. But cases like that are few and far between and many times not indicative of the reality of football.
Pep Guardiola has always had a lot of memes made of him because of his way of understanding the game. The Catalan manager has been mocked because of his style which includes lots of possession and few shots on target. In his last Champions League match against Borussia Dortmund, stats showed City had 69% of possession while with regards to shots on target, Dortmund had a total of 10, compared to Man City's eight. And of course, when these things happen, social media becomes full of comments laughing at the goalless draw despite lots of possession.
But is that really the case? We are talking about a style of play which gave Barcelona six trophies in one season, a Bundesliga for Bayern Munich and two Premier League titles for Man City. So it seems like the efficiency of a well defined game, ruins all predictions. We can analyse Guardiola's record stats from the 2021-22 season and the Premier League title he won on the final day of the season. This came after a whopping 29 victories, six draws and three defeats, 93 points, 99 goals and 26 against. The final stats showed an xG of 96.6%, an xGA of 26% and a difference of 70.5%. That is once again proof that the Catalan's way of playing is more than just in one, two or four games. The result of his good work is shown at the end of the season.
Pep Guardiola's style of play is like the kid who passes his initial exams with an average mark, but who ends up performing outstandingly in his final exams and more and more accumulator tips confirm that. The ex-player is clear that with the ball at his team's feet and without giving the ball to his opponent for more than a minute, success is more attainable. All of that is accompanied by a winning mentality, which focusses on the concentration of playing in a team and which has end with one of the most important prizes of the season: the Ballon d'Or club of the year. This decision by French Football was heavily criticised after they chose City over Champions League finalists Liverpool and Real Madrid.
But all of this is nothing more than because of the weight of statistics, data which makes the best become the best. Maybe not something as tangible as a Champions League trophy or Club World Cup trophy, but as relevant to create and play good football. We live in the era of Foden, De Bruyne and Haaland; before it was Xavi, Iniesta and Messi. A bright future for the type of football which owes a lot of its origins to the strategy of one of the most important managers in history.

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